First of all . . . has it really been since August 30
th that I last posted? Wow. Well, knowing what my past month has been like, I can believe it, I guess.
My last post about the beginning of college football might be enough explanation in itself. Louisville appears to be ready for another lackluster season having started off the season with a loss to a less than stellar University of Kentucky football team (that, by the way, almost lost last night to Middle Tennessee State. This is the same Middle TN that has given
UofL a run for their money the past two seasons and appears to be a decent football team this year.) Louisville has to play them soon and I am hopeful they fair as well as UK did.
Matt and Mark are both playing football for St. Michael's and we literally have practice or a game EVERY day of the week. It's been fun though. We are getting to know the kids and their parents as the season progresses so it's been fun for all of us.
Hurricane Ike has moved to shore and gas prices on Friday began jumping as much as $1 at the local pumps. Kentucky's Governor, Steve
Beshear, declared a State of Emergency invoking the state's anti-price gouging law.
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were "bailed out" last week. This is a good thing for all of us as it helps to ease the worry of what would happen if either of these two collapsed. They are so interwoven in the the overall economy that this had to be done. Speaking of bailouts, I was just reading
an article in the Wall Street Journal about talks taking place this weekend to deal with the Lehman Brothers issue. Barclay's and Bank of America appear to be positioning themselves as suitors to buy the troubled investment bank but are seeking U.S. Government assistance should they decide to bailout/buyout the troubled firm.
So what about those
interest rate cuts I mentioned above? Well, there's
an article posted by Tom Brennan on Jim Kramer's Mad Money saying Kramer wants a 1% rate cut at this Tuesday's fed meeting but at least a minimum of 50 basis points (1/2% for you basis point novices) to try to help banks "get back on their feet" again.
I keep telling people that the really unusual thing going right now is you have these major banks paying 5% on their deposits because the are so desperate for funding and capital right now. This is causing all the banks to pay more they would typically pay on deposits just to prevent run off of their maturing
CDs or liquid deposits to these desperate institutions. The average depositor doesn't know what is going on and is not concerned about these desperate institutions so they are moving their money to the banks paying 5% if their bank isn't paying a comparable rate.
On the
flipside, the Prime Interest Rate, which is typically used as the index for lending rates on commercial lines of credit and short-term interest rates is also 5%. So banks are paying 5% to depositors and charging 5% to borrowers . . . where is the bank going to make money? Granted we all know banks charge fees, etc. but the banks have typically been able to count on this spread between deposits and loans as income and this margin has been shrinking and is now almost non-
existent.
The really interesting thing to watch this week will be if the Fed does cut the Fed Funds Rate being charged to the banks, will the Banks pass along this cut to the Borrowers by lowering the Prime Rates. See, the banks individually choose to set what their published "Prime Rate" will be. Most banks match their Prime Rate to the published Wall Street Journal Prime Rate. However, their are smaler niche banks that will often keep their Prime Rate at a higher rate than that published in the WSJ. Larger banks tend to follow the WSJ Prime Rate in order to be competitive with one another.
With deposit rates being what they are and talks of a Fed Funds Rate cut this week, I could see the banks taking the Fed Funds Rate cut for themselves and pocketing this savings by keeping their published Prime Rates the same. Either that or the deposit rates will have to fall to match the lower Prime Rates. We'll see. Have a great week!